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Electoral college margin of victory on Kalshi
If the Republican candidate wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 211 or more | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7,374 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 131 to 210 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 6,594 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 1 to 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,217 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 211 or more | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,590 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 1 to 10 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,464 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 61 to 90 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,415 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 91 to 130 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,148 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 11 to 30 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,126 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 91 to 130 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,940 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 61 to 90 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,161 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 131 to 210 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,141 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 11 to 30 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,139 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes? · Democratic by 31 to 60 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 691 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes? · Republican by 31 to 60 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 482 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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