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WHICH SONG WILL BE TOP 10 ON THE BILLBOARD HOT 100 CHART on Kalshi
If Dolly Parton has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 102 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 10 song this year? · Kanye West / Ye | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 19,906 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J. Cole have a top 10 song this year? · J. Cole | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,846 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish have a top 10 song this year? · Billie Eilish | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 8,037 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Jackson have a top 10 song this year? · Michael Jackson | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,515 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will KATSEYE have a top 10 song this year? · KATSEYE | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,608 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gracie Abrams have a top 10 song this year? · Gracie Abrams | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 6,197 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA have a top 10 song this year? · SZA | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 6,027 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have a top 10 song this year? · The Weeknd | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 5,378 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Luke Combs have a top 10 song this year? · Luke Combs | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,231 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj have a top 10 song this year? · Nicki Minaj | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,223 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BLACKPINK have a top 10 song this year? · BLACKPINK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,907 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dolly Parton have a top 10 song this year? · Dolly Parton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,689 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx have a top 10 song this year? · Charli xcx | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,871 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joji have a top 10 song this year? · Joji | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,840 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Mayer have a top 10 song this year? · John Mayer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,829 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doechii have a top 10 song this year? · Doechii | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,677 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Uzi Vert have a top 10 song this year? · Lil Uzi Vert | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,564 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yeat have a top 10 song this year? · Yeat | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 3,407 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SIENNA SPIRO have a top 10 song this year? · SIENNA SPIRO | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,889 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé have a top 10 song this year? · Beyoncé | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,782 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mariah Carey have a top 10 song this year? · Mariah Carey | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,767 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 10 song this year? · Kendrick Lamar | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,367 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott have a top 10 song this year? · Travis Scott | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 2,249 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Baby have a top 10 song this year? · Lil Baby | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 2,110 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Kid LAROI have a top 10 song this year? · The Kid LAROI | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,002 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids have a top 10 song this year? · Stray Kids | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,934 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna have a top 10 song this year? · Rihanna | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,881 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga have a top 10 song this year? · Lady Gaga | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,707 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A$AP Rocky have a top 10 song this year? · A$AP Rocky | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,642 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will EsDeeKid have a top 10 song this year? · EsDeeKid | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,582 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Brown have a top 10 song this year? · Chris Brown | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,509 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shaboozey have a top 10 song this year? · Shaboozey | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,505 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have a top 10 song this year? · Tyler, The Creator | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,424 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter have a top 10 song this year? · Sabrina Carpenter | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,402 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyla have a top 10 song this year? · Tyla | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,238 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eminem have a top 10 song this year? · Eminem | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,067 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ROSALÍA have a top 10 song this year? · ROSALÍA | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,029 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Central Cee have a top 10 song this year? · Central Cee | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 983 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Addison Rae have a top 10 song this year? · Addison Rae | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 956 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlie Puth have a top 10 song this year? · Charlie Puth | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 950 | Dec 26, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 102 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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