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treasury spread 10y2y on date on Kalshi
If the daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 is above 70bps, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 40bps? · Above 40bps | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,305 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 70bps? · Above 70bps | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 2,152 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 30bps? · Above 30bps | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,909 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 50bps? · Above 50bps | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 755 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 20bps? · Above 20bps | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 676 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 60bps? · Above 60bps | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 343 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -30bps? · Above -30bps | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 326 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -20bps? · Above -20bps | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 266 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 10bps? · Above 10bps | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 226 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above 0bps? · Above 0bps | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 224 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 be above -10bps? · Above -10bps | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 76 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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