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WILL ARTIST HAVE A NUMBER ONE SONG ON BILLBOARD HOT 100 THIS YEAR on Kalshi
If Michael Jackson has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 115 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year? · Kanye West / Ye | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,955 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae have a #1 hit this year? · Tate McRae | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 19,880 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 hit this year? · Morgan Wallen | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 17,101 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will J. Cole have a #1 hit this year? · J. Cole | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 14,820 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Future have a #1 hit this year? · Future | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 14,336 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Chappell Roan have a #1 hit this year? · Chappell Roan | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 13,983 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Zach Bryan have a #1 hit this year? · Zach Bryan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 13,568 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year? · Post Malone | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 12,946 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year? · The Weeknd | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 10,956 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit this year? · Olivia Dean | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 10,293 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit this year? · Don Toliver | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,922 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé have a #1 hit this year? · Beyoncé | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 9,367 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx have a #1 hit this year? · Charli xcx | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,447 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year? · Mariah Carey | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 8,414 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will KAROL G have a #1 hit this year? · KAROL G | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 7,775 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit this year? · Gracie Abrams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,162 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Zara Larsson have a #1 hit this year? · Zara Larsson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,851 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Lil Wayne have a #1 hit this year? · Lil Wayne | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,375 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 hit this year? · Sabrina Carpenter | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,126 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Luke Combs have a #1 hit this year? · Luke Combs | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,006 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year? · Billie Eilish | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,691 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year? · Kendrick Lamar | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 4,310 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will KATSEYE have a #1 hit this year? · KATSEYE | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4,243 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott have a #1 hit this year? · Travis Scott | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,852 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 hit this year? · Tyler, The Creator | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,817 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Rihanna have a #1 hit this year? · Rihanna | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,683 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa have a #1 hit this year? · Dua Lipa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,292 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean have a #1 hit this year? · Frank Ocean | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 3,088 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Chris Brown have a #1 hit this year? · Chris Brown | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,068 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Lana Del Rey have a #1 hit this year? · Lana Del Rey | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,782 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Doja Cat have a #1 hit this year? · Doja Cat | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,755 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Michael Jackson have a #1 hit this year? · Michael Jackson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,662 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Megan Thee Stallion have a #1 hit this year? · Megan Thee Stallion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,368 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 hit this year? · Ed Sheeran | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,358 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids have a #1 hit this year? · Stray Kids | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,351 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Joji have a #1 hit this year? · Joji | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,331 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Benson Boone have a #1 hit this year? · Benson Boone | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,186 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year? · Justin Bieber | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,146 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga have a #1 hit this year? · Lady Gaga | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,140 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
| Will BLACKPINK have a #1 hit this year? · BLACKPINK | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,029 | Dec 21, 05:01 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 115 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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