What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.34.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

30-year mortgage rate this week on Kalshi

If the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 is above 7.27%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

9% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.25%? · Above 7.25%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,500	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.22%? · Above 7.22%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,464	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.23%? · Above 7.23%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,436	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.19%? · Above 7.19%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	4,528	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.27%? · Above 7.27%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,487	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.10%? · Above 7.10%	62¢	62%	1.7¢	—	77%	3,458	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.13%? · Above 7.13%	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	1,938	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.24%? · Above 7.24%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,575	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.11%? · Above 7.11%	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	87%	1,544	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.12%? · Above 7.12%	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	1,349	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.26%? · Above 7.26%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,134	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.08%? · Above 7.08%	85¢	85%	0.9¢	—	30%	1,130	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.15%? · Above 7.15%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	957	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.16%? · Above 7.16%	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	324	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.17%? · Above 7.17%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	318	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.18%? · Above 7.18%	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	227	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.09%? · Above 7.09%	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	55%	220	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.14%? · Above 7.14%	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	125	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.21%? · Above 7.21%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	19	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC
Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 12, 2026 be above 7.20%? · Above 7.20%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1	Nov 12, 16:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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