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Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029? on Kalshi
If legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) has become law after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, Library of Congress.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) become law before Dec 31, 2029? · Yes | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 234 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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