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US 5Y Treasury yield after events on Kalshi
If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.88% at Dec 16, 2026 at 8:45am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - 5Y UST.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 714 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.40% on Nov 10 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.40% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 10 | Nov 10, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Nov 10 at 4:30pm ET? · Above 4.88% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 5 | Nov 10, 21:29 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.88% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.87% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.86% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.85% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.84% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.83% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.82% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.81% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.80% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.79% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.78% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.77% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.77% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.76% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.76% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.75% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.75% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.74% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.73% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.73% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.72% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.72% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.71% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.71% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.70% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.69% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.68% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.67% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.67% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.66% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.65% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.65% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.64% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.63% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.63% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.62% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.61% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.61% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.60% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.59% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.58% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.58% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.57% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.57% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.56% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.56% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.55% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.55% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.54% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.53% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.53% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.52% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.52% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.51% on Dec 16 at 8:45am ET? · Above 4.51% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 16, 13:44 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 714 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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