What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

American Airlines KPI on Kalshi

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports above 83.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 83.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 83.5%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 81.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 81.5%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 81.0% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 81.0%	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 80.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 80.5%	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 80.0% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 80.0%	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 79.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 79.5%	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 79.0% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 79.0%	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 78.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 78.5%	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	44%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 78.0% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 78.0%	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	28%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 77.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 77.5%	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report above 75.5% consolidated passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 75.5%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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