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ACA Enrollment on Kalshi
If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 17% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 10 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 10% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 641 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 20 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 20% | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 510 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 15 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 15% | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 278 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 25 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 25% | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 50 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 30 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 30% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 24 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 18 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 17 from February 2026 to February 2027? · Above 17% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 9 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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