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ACA repeal on Kalshi
If a bill becomes law after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029 that does any of the following: (1) ends the shared responsibility (penalty) provisions for employers, or reduces those penalties to $0; (2) eliminates the expansion of Medicaid eligibility to non-elderly adults with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level; (3) ends the prohibition on coverage exclusions based on pre existing conditions; (4) redefines the term “dependent” for the purposes of the ACA’s employer shared responsibility provisions from meaning a child under 26 to a child under 18 or younger; or (5) ends premium subsidies for individuals whose household incomes are between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level for p
Settles on: Library of Congress.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029? · Before Jan 20, 2029 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 10,131 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.