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Legendary Entertainment acquisitions on Kalshi
If Legendary announces an agreement to acquire Lionsgate before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Securities and Exchange Commission, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC, Financial Times, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
22% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Legendary announce acquisition of Lionsgate before Nov 16, 2026? · Before Nov 16, 2026 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Legendary announce acquisition of Lionsgate before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Legendary announce acquisition of Lionsgate before Dec 15, 2026? · Before Dec 15, 2026 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Dec 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Legendary announce acquisition of Lionsgate before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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