What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Who will play Sonny Crocket in Miami Vice on Kalshi

If Richard Madden is cast in Miami Vice before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico, The Hollywood Reporter.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Glen Powell	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	10,802	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Ryan Gosling	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	3,403	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Miles Teller	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	1,842	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pedro Pascal be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Pedro Pascal	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,143	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Taylor Kitsch	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,119	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Tom Hardy be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Tom Hardy	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	555	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Richard Madden	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	484	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Oscar Isaac	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	227	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Jake Gyllenhaal	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	209	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice? · Garrett Hedlund	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	74	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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