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Total political ad spending on Kalshi
If total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle is above 12.5 billion dollars in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AdImpact.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
25% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 88¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.42 | 88.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 11000000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 11 billion dollars | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 14,260 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 11500000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 11.5 billion dollars | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,401 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 11750000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 11.75 billion dollars | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,775 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 12000000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 12 billion dollars | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 7 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 12500000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 12.5 billion dollars | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 12250000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 12.25 billion dollars | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle be above 11250000000 in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review? · Above 11.25 billion dollars | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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