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1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the first half in the Guinea vs Eritrea professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea wins 1st Half · Guinea wins 1st Half | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Eritrea wins 1st Half · Eritrea wins 1st Half | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Madagascar wins 1st Half · Madagascar wins 1st Half | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Guinea-Bissau wins 1st Half · Guinea-Bissau wins 1st Half | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Zimbabwe wins 1st Half · Zimbabwe wins 1st Half | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Equatorial Guinea wins 1st Half · Equatorial Guinea wins 1st Half | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Sierra Leone wins 1st Half · Sierra Leone wins 1st Half | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Congo DR wins 1st Half · Congo DR wins 1st Half | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Somalia wins 1st Half · Somalia wins 1st Half | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Ghana wins 1st Half · Ghana wins 1st Half | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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