What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 34¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.29.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 36% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 34%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

1st Half Total on Kalshi

If the total goals scored by Guinea and Eritrea is more than 2.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Guinea vs Eritrea professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

34%

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

69% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
34¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.31	35.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	Nov 14, 17:00 UTC
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Over 2.5 1H goals scored · Over 2.5 1H goals scored	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Over 1.5 1H goals scored · Over 1.5 1H goals scored	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Over 0.5 1H goals scored · Over 0.5 1H goals scored	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.