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If Togo wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Algeria vs Togo professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 96 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 44¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.96 | 45.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Nigeria wins by more than 1.5 goals | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 75 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Congo DR wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Congo DR wins by more than 1.5 goals | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 43 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Cameroon wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Cameroon wins by more than 1.5 goals | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 32 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 20 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Ghana wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Ghana wins by more than 2.5 goals | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 11 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Guinea wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Guinea wins by more than 1.5 goals | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 8 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Mali wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Mali wins by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Togo wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Togo wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Togo wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Togo wins by more than 1.5 goals | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Algeria wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Algeria wins by more than 2.5 goals | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Algeria wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Algeria wins by more than 1.5 goals | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| South Sudan wins by more than 2.5 goals? · South Sudan wins by more than 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| South Sudan wins by more than 1.5 goals? · South Sudan wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Angola wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Angola wins by more than 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Angola wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Angola wins by more than 1.5 goals | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Uganda wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Uganda wins by more than 2.5 goals | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Uganda wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Uganda wins by more than 1.5 goals | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Botswana wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Botswana wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Botswana wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Botswana wins by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Niger wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Niger wins by more than 2.5 goals | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Niger wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Niger wins by more than 1.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Morocco wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Morocco wins by more than 1.5 goals | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Malawi wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Malawi wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Malawi wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Malawi wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Egypt wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Egypt wins by more than 2.5 goals | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Rwanda wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Rwanda wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Rwanda wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Rwanda wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Mali wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Mali wins by more than 2.5 goals | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Tunisia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Tunisia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Tunisia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Tunisia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Libya wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Libya wins by more than 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Libya wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Libya wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| South Africa wins by more than 2.5 goals? · South Africa wins by more than 2.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| South Africa wins by more than 1.5 goals? · South Africa wins by more than 1.5 goals | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Kenya wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Kenya wins by more than 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Kenya wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Kenya wins by more than 1.5 goals | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Tanzania wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Tanzania wins by more than 2.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Tanzania wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Tanzania wins by more than 1.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 96 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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