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If Guinea records above 2.5 goals in the Guinea vs Eritrea professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Guinea score over 2.5 goals? · Guinea over 2.5 goals | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Guinea score over 1.5 goals? · Guinea over 1.5 goals | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Guinea score over 0.5 goals? · Guinea over 0.5 goals | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Eritrea score over 2.5 goals? · Eritrea over 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Eritrea score over 1.5 goals? · Eritrea over 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Eritrea score over 0.5 goals? · Eritrea over 0.5 goals | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 14, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Madagascar score over 2.5 goals? · Madagascar over 2.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Madagascar score over 1.5 goals? · Madagascar over 1.5 goals | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Madagascar score over 0.5 goals? · Madagascar over 0.5 goals | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Guinea-Bissau score over 2.5 goals? · Guinea-Bissau over 2.5 goals | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Guinea-Bissau score over 1.5 goals? · Guinea-Bissau over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Guinea-Bissau score over 0.5 goals? · Guinea-Bissau over 0.5 goals | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Zimbabwe score over 2.5 goals? · Zimbabwe over 2.5 goals | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Zimbabwe score over 1.5 goals? · Zimbabwe over 1.5 goals | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Zimbabwe score over 0.5 goals? · Zimbabwe over 0.5 goals | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Equatorial Guinea score over 2.5 goals? · Equatorial Guinea over 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Equatorial Guinea score over 1.5 goals? · Equatorial Guinea over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Equatorial Guinea score over 0.5 goals? · Equatorial Guinea over 0.5 goals | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Sierra Leone score over 2.5 goals? · Sierra Leone over 2.5 goals | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Sierra Leone score over 1.5 goals? · Sierra Leone over 1.5 goals | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Sierra Leone score over 0.5 goals? · Sierra Leone over 0.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Congo DR score over 2.5 goals? · Congo DR over 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Congo DR score over 1.5 goals? · Congo DR over 1.5 goals | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Congo DR score over 0.5 goals? · Congo DR over 0.5 goals | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 14, 22:00 UTC |
| Will Somalia score over 2.5 goals? · Somalia over 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
| Will Somalia score over 1.5 goals? · Somalia over 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
| Will Somalia score over 0.5 goals? · Somalia over 0.5 goals | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
| Will Ghana score over 2.5 goals? · Ghana over 2.5 goals | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
| Will Ghana score over 1.5 goals? · Ghana over 1.5 goals | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
| Will Ghana score over 0.5 goals? · Ghana over 0.5 goals | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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