Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next African leader out on Kalshi
If the President of Ghana is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, Bloomberg, CBS, The Washington Post, AP, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, NBC, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set? · Félix Tshisekedi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,497 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set? · Bola Tinubu | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 2,799 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave office next in this set? · Cyril Ramaphosa | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,374 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emmerson Mnangagwa leave office next in this set? · Emmerson Mnangagwa | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,308 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will William Ruto leave office next in this set? · William Ruto | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,179 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Kagame leave office next in this set? · Paul Kagame | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,843 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi leave office next in this set? · Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,095 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taye Atske Selassie leave office next in this set? · Taye Atske Selassie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,048 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdelmadjid Tebboune leave office next in this set? · Abdelmadjid Tebboune | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 351 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Mahama leave office next in this set? · John Mahama | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 253 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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