What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Will any company achieve AGI before [date]? on Kalshi

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, Fox Business, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Financial Times, The Information, NBC, The Washington Post, company, The New York Times, MarketWatch, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	49,996	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	43,510	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	42,242	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	33,960	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	24,911	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	20,069	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028? · Before Oct 1, 2028	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	76%	13,492	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031? · Before Jan 1, 2031	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	10,191	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	7,652	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030? · Before Jan 1, 2030	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	5,392	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	4,177	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,621	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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