What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Aguascalientes Governor winner on Kalshi

If Toño Martín del Campo wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Instituto Estatal Electoral de Aguascalientes, Instituto Nacional Electoral.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Toño Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Toño Martín del Campo	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	921	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Anayeli Muñoz win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Anayeli Muñoz	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	401	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will José Antonio Arámbula López win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · José Antonio Arámbula López	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	401	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Humberto Ambriz Delgadillo	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	400	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	321	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Leticia Olivares Jiménez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Leticia Olivares Jiménez	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	200	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Lorena Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Lorena Martínez	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	200	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Kendor Gregorio Macías Martínez	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	200	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election? · Leo Montañez	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	166	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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