Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Alaska General Election MOV on Kalshi
If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%? · Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 44,074 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%? · Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 41,565 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%? · Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 37,846 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%? · Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 34,327 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%? · Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,210 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%? · Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,152 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%? · Mary Peltola, 9-12% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,933 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%? · Dan Sullivan, ≥12% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,769 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%? · Mary Peltola, ≥12% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,585 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%? · Dan Sullivan, 9-12% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,966 | Jun 02, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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