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Alaska salmon harvest on Kalshi
If Alaska's statewide commercial harvest of all salmon for the 2026 season is at least 75 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 115 million fish or above? · At least 115 million | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 6,415 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 100 million fish or above? · At least 100 million | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 6,154 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 140 million fish or above? · At least 140 million | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 6,102 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 120 million fish or above? · At least 120 million | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 6,076 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 110 million fish or above? · At least 110 million | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5,946 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 125 million fish or above? · At least 125 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,310 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 90 million fish or above? · At least 90 million | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 3,282 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 95 million fish or above? · At least 95 million | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,652 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 105 million fish or above? · At least 105 million | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 2,099 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 130 million fish or above? · At least 130 million | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 478 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 135 million fish or above? · At least 135 million | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 443 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 75 million fish or above? · At least 75 million | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 50 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 150 million fish or above? · At least 150 million | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 7 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 80 million fish or above? · At least 80 million | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 85 million fish or above? · At least 85 million | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alaska's 2026 commercial all salmon harvest total 145 million fish or above? · At least 145 million | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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