What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 23% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Alberta snap election on Kalshi

If a snap general election to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is called after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, Axios, BBC, The Washington Post, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

43% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
21¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.77	22.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a snap general election to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is called before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	55	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a snap general election to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is called before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a snap general election to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is called before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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