Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
When will artist release a new album? on Kalshi
If Don Toliver releases a NITROUS after issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Drake release new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 12,300 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album before Jan 1, 2027? · Before 2027 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 9,254 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake release new album after issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,829 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,871 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album before Dec 1, 2026? · Before December | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,022 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,554 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release NITROUS after issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,526 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release NITROUS after issuance and before Mar 1, 2027 · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 3,338 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3,307 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release NITROUS after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,564 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will MrBeast formally known as James Stephen Donaldson release new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,528 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release NITROUS after issuance and before Apr 1, 2027 · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,367 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,640 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,246 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 744 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 715 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 665 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 584 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release NITROUS after issuance and before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 549 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 436 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 411 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 407 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Jonas Brothers release new album after issuance and before Jul 1, 2027 · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 84 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 59 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 21 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 16 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 11 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will The Jonas Brothers release new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 4 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Jonas Brothers release new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen release a new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen release a new album after issuance and before Feb 1, 2027 · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen release a new album after issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign release Vultures 3 after issuance and before Jan 1, 2028 · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Jonas Brothers release new album after issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 · Before Jan 1, 2029 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Jonas Brothers release new album after issuance and before Jul 1, 2028 · Before Jul 1, 2028 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver release new album before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Future release new album before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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