What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 17¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 18% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 17%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Anthropic personal AI agent on Kalshi

If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The New York Times Technology section, VentureBeat, The Verge, Politico Technology coverage, Ars Technica, TechCrunch, Associated Press Technology coverage, Anthropic, Wired, Reuters, Engadget, Bloomberg Technology, The Information, The Wall Street Journal Technology section, Axios Technology newsletter.

Market says (typical open contract)

17%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

34% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Anthropic release a personal AI agent before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	9,584	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Anthropic release a personal AI agent before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	8,146	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.