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Will the government rescind the Anthropic ban? on Kalshi
If the Department of Defense or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 4,451 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,070 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,363 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 123 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 70 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.