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When will AP call the North Carolina 3rd District U.S. House election? on Kalshi
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 68¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.12 | 69.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 18, 2026? · Before Nov 18 | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 5,403 | Nov 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 25, 2026? · Before Nov 25 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2,247 | Nov 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026? · Before Nov 14 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,787 | Nov 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,211 | Nov 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Jan 4, 2027? · Before Jan 4 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,113 | Jan 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 801 | Dec 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 North Carolina 3rd Congressional District U.S. House election before 12:00 AM ET on Dec 15, 2026? · Before Dec 15 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Dec 15, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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