What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.87.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 19% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

DC Circuit rules for AP on Oval Office access on Kalshi

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Orders of Public Interest.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

36% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rule affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago? · Before 2028	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	2,634	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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