Markets › Kalshi › Politics
President RCP approval rating this week on Kalshi
If the President's approval rating is above 39.8% at 11:00 AM ET on November 13, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: RealClearPolitics.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics? · 39.0 to 39.2 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 4,079 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics? · Below 38.1 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 4,006 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.4 and 38.6 according to RealClearPolitics? · 38.4 to 38.6 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,551 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.1 and 38.3 according to RealClearPolitics? · 38.1 to 38.3 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,529 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.7 and 38.9 according to RealClearPolitics? · 38.7 to 38.9 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3,288 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.3 and 39.5 according to RealClearPolitics? · 39.3 to 39.5 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,441 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.6 and 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics? · 39.6 to 39.8 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,650 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will the President's approval rating be above 39.8 according to RealClearPolitics? · Above 39.8 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,616 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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