Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
AI Arena Score on Kalshi
If A Anthropic Claude Opus model designated version 5.6 or higher scores Above 1560 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1515 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 35,044 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1500 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 25,960 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1490 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 22,481 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1510 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 17,574 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1495 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 14,488 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1520 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 10,041 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? · above 1505 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 9,181 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1460 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 592 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1420 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 250 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1480 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 200 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1430 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 200 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1550 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 54 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1540 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 15 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1530 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 13 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1560 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1550 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1540 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1530 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1520 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1510 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Opus 5.6+ debut arena score? · Above 1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1470 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1450 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Astra 6.1+ debut arena score? · Above 1440 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1520 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1510 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Fable 5.2+ debut arena score? · Above 1490 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.