Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Argentina Peronist presidential nominee on Kalshi
If Sergio Uñac wins the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Partido Justicialista, Cámara Nacional Electoral.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sergio Massa win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Sergio Massa | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,471 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Máximo Kirchner win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Máximo Kirchner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,027 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Axel Kicillof | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 810 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Grabois win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Juan Grabois | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 683 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jorge Capitanich win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Jorge Capitanich | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 683 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ricardo Quintela win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Ricardo Quintela | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 516 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gerardo Zamora win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Gerardo Zamora | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 516 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dante Gebel win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Dante Gebel | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 516 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eduardo de Pedro win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Eduardo de Pedro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 434 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 434 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sergio Uñac win the Justicialist Party's nomination for the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Sergio Uñac | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 334 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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