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Argentina presidential election on Kalshi
If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? · Javier Milei | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 33,724 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? · Sergio Massa | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 13,386 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? · Axel Kicillof | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 6,051 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? · Patricia Bullrich | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,828 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? · Mauricio Macri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 992 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? · Horacio Rodríguez Larreta | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 104 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? · Eduardo de Pedro | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 103 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the next Argentine presidential election? · Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Oct 30, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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