Markets › Kalshi › Politics
ARRESTS on Kalshi
If Ilhan Omar is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred, Fox News, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, the Associated Press, Axios, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, The Washington Post, Reuters, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027? · Barack Obama | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 276,015 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027? · Hillary Clinton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 227,850 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027? · Anthony Fauci | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 209,691 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Letitia James be arrested before Jan 2027? · Letitia James | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 164,678 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027? · John Brennan | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 157,527 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will James Clapper be arrested before Jan 2027? · James Clapper | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 67,453 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Adam Schiff be arrested before Jan 2027? · Adam Schiff | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 59,915 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ilhan Omar be arrested before Jan 2027? · Ilhan Omar | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 59,554 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027? · Gavin Newsom | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 54,778 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bill Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027? · Bill Clinton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 43,780 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lisa Cook be arrested before Jan 2027? · Lisa Cook | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 35,061 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tom Homan be arrested before Jan 2027? · Tom Homan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 15,585 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Susan Rice be arrested before Jan 2027? · Susan Rice | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 14,108 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 2027? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13,526 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027? · José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,473 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pam Bondi be arrested before Jan 2027? · Pam Bondi | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,450 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027? · Mahmoud Khalil | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 12,504 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden be arrested before Jan 2027? · Joe Biden | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,247 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027? · Loretta Lynch | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,823 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027? · John Kerry | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,990 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kash Patel be arrested before Jan 2027? · Kash Patel | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 6,877 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Candace Owens be arrested before Jan 2027? · Candace Owens | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,358 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027? · Brandon Johnson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,170 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lee Jae Myung be arrested before Jan 2027? · Lee Jae Myung | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,165 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027? · Lee Jun-seok | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,886 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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