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what will the price of art be? on Kalshi
If the sale price including buyer’s premium of the Betonte Ecken (1922–1923; lot 12A) by Wassily Kandinsky on Artnet is above $90M during Christie's New York 20th Century Evening Sale (sale 24266), beginning November 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Artnet.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 416 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $500K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 69,260 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $1500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $1.5M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 13,835 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $2.5M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,132 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $2000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $2M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,618 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $5000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $5M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,342 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $4M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 5,614 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Le Baiser by Pablo Picasso, as reported by Artnet, be above $60000000 at the Christie's New York Heroes & Lovers auction on November 17, 2026? · Above $60M | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 5,302 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Tête by Amedeo Modigliani, as reported by Artnet, be above $30000000 at the Phillips New York November evening sale during November 9-20, 2026? · Above $30M | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 5,162 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Champ d'avoine et coquelicots by Claude Monet, as reported by Artnet, be above $8000000 at the Christie’s auctions of the William I. Koch Collection in New York on November 17–18, 2026? · Above $8M | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,000 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Le Baiser by Pablo Picasso, as reported by Artnet, be above $50000000 at the Christie's New York Heroes & Lovers auction on November 17, 2026? · Above $50M | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 4,689 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Champ d'avoine et coquelicots by Claude Monet, as reported by Artnet, be above $18000000 at the Christie’s auctions of the William I. Koch Collection in New York on November 17–18, 2026? · Above $18M | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 4,430 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Litzlbergkeller by Gustav Klimt, as reported by Artnet, be above $70000000 at the Christie's New York auction on November 17, 2026? · Above $70M | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 4,401 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Champ d'avoine et coquelicots by Claude Monet, as reported by Artnet, be above $16000000 at the Christie’s auctions of the William I. Koch Collection in New York on November 17–18, 2026? · Above $16M | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,984 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Litzlbergkeller by Gustav Klimt, as reported by Artnet, be above $80000000 at the Christie's New York auction on November 17, 2026? · Above $80M | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,946 | Nov 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $25000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $25M | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 3,821 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3000000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $3M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,544 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $240000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $240M | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,495 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the La Place du Théâtre-Français et l’avenue de l’Opéra, soleil d’après-midi en hiver by Camille Pissarro on Sotheby's be above $60000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $60M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,477 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $3500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $3.5M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,416 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $160000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $160M | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 3,008 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the 2026 NBA Finals 'The Hand of OG' Game 4 Game Used Basketball | Largest Comeback in NBA Finals History | OG Anunoby Game Winning Tip-In | NBA Finals Record 14 3-Pointers in a Half by on Sotheby's be above $4500000 during the live auction beginning before 2027? · Above $4.5M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,879 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the La Place du Théâtre-Français et l’avenue de l’Opéra, soleil d’après-midi en hiver by Camille Pissarro on Sotheby's be above $45000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $45M | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 2,867 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the En Canot (Jeune fille à la barque) by Pierre-Auguste Renoir on Sotheby's be above $40000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $40M | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,740 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Tête by Amedeo Modigliani, as reported by Artnet, be above $32000000 at the Phillips New York November evening sale during November 9-20, 2026? · Above $32M | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,026 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $130000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $130M | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,981 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $220000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $220M | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,845 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the En Canot (Jeune fille à la barque) by Pierre-Auguste Renoir on Sotheby's be above $45000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $45M | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,319 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the En Canot (Jeune fille à la barque) by Pierre-Auguste Renoir on Sotheby's be above $35000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $35M | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,199 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $150000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $150M | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,095 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the La Place du Théâtre-Français et l’avenue de l’Opéra, soleil d’après-midi en hiver by Camille Pissarro on Sotheby's be above $40000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $40M | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,003 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $140M | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 921 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $180000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $180M | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 866 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $140M | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 843 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $30000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $30M | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 700 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $200000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $200M | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 637 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $110M | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 629 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $20M | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 590 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Châtaigniers en fleurs by Vincent van Gogh on Sotheby's be above $260000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $260M | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 562 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the realized auction sale price of Tête by Amedeo Modigliani, as reported by Artnet, be above $34000000 at the Phillips New York November evening sale during November 9-20, 2026? · Above $34M | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 518 | Nov 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the lot sold price of the Le Jardin des Tuileries by Claude Monet on Sotheby's be above $12500000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)? · Above $12.5M | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 517 | Nov 19, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 416 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.