Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
Artist Yearly Streams on Kalshi
If Taylor Swift has Above 31.0B Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Luminate.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 699 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Drake have 26000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 26.0B | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 19,745 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake have 28000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 28.0B | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 18,128 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake have 27000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 27.0B | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,979 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have 4600000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 4.6B | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 12,390 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Black Coffee have 205000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 205M | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,012 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 160000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 160M | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 9,244 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 2Pac have 3800000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 3.8B | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 8,850 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 165000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 165M | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 7,929 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Bibi have 32500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 32.5M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,712 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 2100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 2.1B | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,614 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 175000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 175M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 7,112 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny have 32000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 32B | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 7,075 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have 4400000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 4.4B | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 7,037 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have 18500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 18.5B | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6,780 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FISHER have 500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 500M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,718 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Odd Mob have 115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 115M | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 6,694 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Lake have 350000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 350M | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 6,672 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 170000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 170M | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 6,497 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 150000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 150M | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 6,368 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 1800000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 1.8B | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 6,341 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny have 34000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 34.0B | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 6,249 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna have 12250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 12.25B | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 6,057 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver have 10500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 10.5B | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 6,035 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have 12000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 12.0B | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5,995 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Odd Mob have 130000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 130M | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 5,919 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber have 18000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 18B | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5,872 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Allan have 42500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 42.5M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,763 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Hype have 675000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 675M | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 5,740 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rampa have 210000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 210M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,523 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA have 8250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 8.25B | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 5,504 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 155000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 155M | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5,396 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 135000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 135M | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 5,342 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Allan have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 45M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,275 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ATRIP have 27500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 27.5M | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,244 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Mars have 18500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 18.5B | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,192 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Mars have 19000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 19B | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,125 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will it's murph have 145000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 145M | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 5,038 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Odd Mob have 105000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 105M | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5,003 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny have 29000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 29B | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 5,000 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Stussy have 190000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? · Above 190M | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 4,932 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 699 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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