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ATP Challenger Doubles Match on Kalshi
If Jay Friend / Ray Ho wins the Friend / Ho vs Banthia / Chandrasekar professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Matsuyama Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moerani Bouzige / Casey Hoole wins · Moerani Bouzige / Casey Hoole | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Jay Friend / Ray Ho wins · Jay Friend / Ray Ho | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:30 UTC |
| Siddhant Banthia / Anirudh Chandrasekar wins · Siddhant Banthia / Anirudh Chandrasekar | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 05:30 UTC |
| Masamichi Imamura / Rio Noguchi wins · Masamichi Imamura / Rio Noguchi | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:20 UTC |
| Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine / David Poljak wins · Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine / David Poljak | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:20 UTC |
| Toshihide Matsui / Ramkumar Ramanathan wins · Toshihide Matsui / Ramkumar Ramanathan | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:20 UTC |
| Alexandru Jecan / Szymon Kielan wins · Alexandru Jecan / Szymon Kielan | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:20 UTC |
| Jason Jung / Ajeet Rai wins · Jason Jung / Ajeet Rai | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Ethan Cook / Tai Leonard Sach wins · Ethan Cook / Tai Leonard Sach | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:30 UTC |
| Pruchya Isaro / Yuta Shimizu wins · Pruchya Isaro / Yuta Shimizu | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:10 UTC |
| Cheng-Peng Hsieh / Mili Poljicak wins · Cheng-Peng Hsieh / Mili Poljicak | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:10 UTC |
| Jeffrey Chuan En Hsu / Evan Zhu wins · Jeffrey Chuan En Hsu / Evan Zhu | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:20 UTC |
| Enzo Aguiard / Pavle Marinkov wins · Enzo Aguiard / Pavle Marinkov | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:20 UTC |
| Akira Santillan / Baoluo Zheng wins · Akira Santillan / Baoluo Zheng | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:20 UTC |
| Blake Ellis / Li Tu wins · Blake Ellis / Li Tu | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:20 UTC |
| Finn Reynolds / James Watt wins · Finn Reynolds / James Watt | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:00 UTC |
| S D Prajwal Dev / Nitin Kumar Sinha wins · S D Prajwal Dev / Nitin Kumar Sinha | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:00 UTC |
| Thijmen Loof / Kaito Uesugi wins · Thijmen Loof / Kaito Uesugi | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:00 UTC |
| Finn Bass / Scott Duncan wins · Finn Bass / Scott Duncan | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 02:00 UTC |
| Calum Puttergill / Dane Sweeny wins · Calum Puttergill / Dane Sweeny | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 25, 01:10 UTC |
| Isaac Becroft / Anton Shepp wins · Isaac Becroft / Anton Shepp | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 25, 01:10 UTC |
| Shinji Hazawa / Yamato Sueoka wins · Shinji Hazawa / Yamato Sueoka | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:00 UTC |
| Franco Davila Blotte / Diego Gomez wins · Franco Davila Blotte / Diego Gomez | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:10 UTC |
| Boris Arias / Ignacio Carou wins · Boris Arias / Ignacio Carou | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:10 UTC |
| Admir Kalender / Nino Serdarusic wins · Admir Kalender / Nino Serdarusic | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 24, 15:50 UTC |
| Ariel Behar / Joshua Paris wins · Ariel Behar / Joshua Paris | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 24, 15:50 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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