Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Challenger ATP on Kalshi
If Fajing Sun wins the Sun vs Harris professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Matsuyama Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 76 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago De la Fuente wins · Santiago De la Fuente | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,206,925 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Daniel Rincon wins · Daniel Rincon | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,145,314 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Philip Henning wins · Philip Henning | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 318,372 | Nov 24, 12:40 UTC |
| Nicolas Jarry wins · Nicolas Jarry | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 275,308 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Alastair Gray wins · Alastair Gray | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 257,395 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Darwin Blanch wins · Darwin Blanch | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 243,237 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Radu Mihai Papoe wins · Radu Mihai Papoe | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 218,074 | Nov 24, 12:40 UTC |
| Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo wins · Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 150,931 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Calvin Hemery wins · Calvin Hemery | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 84,226 | Nov 24, 14:40 UTC |
| Andrej Nedic wins · Andrej Nedic | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 78,995 | Nov 24, 12:40 UTC |
| Michele Ribecai wins · Michele Ribecai | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 70,950 | Nov 24, 12:40 UTC |
| Duje Ajdukovic wins · Duje Ajdukovic | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 49,877 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Moez Echargui wins · Moez Echargui | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 47,808 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Filip Misolic wins · Filip Misolic | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 23,063 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Shintaro Mochizuki wins · Shintaro Mochizuki | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 19,492 | Nov 24, 14:40 UTC |
| Braden Shick wins · Braden Shick | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 17,476 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Thiago Monteiro wins · Thiago Monteiro | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 14,034 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Andres Andrade wins · Andres Andrade | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 12,860 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Genaro Alberto Olivieri wins · Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 11,920 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Gianluca Cadenasso wins · Gianluca Cadenasso | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 10,024 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Juan Pablo Varillas wins · Juan Pablo Varillas | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 6,112 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Aidan Mayo wins · Aidan Mayo | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 5,985 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Mika Petkovic wins · Mika Petkovic | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 5,503 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Michael Mmoh wins · Michael Mmoh | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 5,335 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Zdenek Kolar wins · Zdenek Kolar | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 4,679 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Stefan Kozlov wins · Stefan Kozlov | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,372 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Jan Kumstat wins · Jan Kumstat | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,869 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Alexis Galarneau wins · Alexis Galarneau | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,591 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Ozan Baris wins · Ozan Baris | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,363 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
| Lorenzo Giustino wins · Lorenzo Giustino | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,175 | Nov 24, 15:30 UTC |
| Nishesh Basavareddy wins · Nishesh Basavareddy | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,120 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Marcos Giron wins · Marcos Giron | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,033 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Abdullah Shelbayh wins · Abdullah Shelbayh | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,779 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Elmer Moller wins · Elmer Moller | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,636 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Giles Hussey wins · Giles Hussey | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,623 | Nov 24, 21:30 UTC |
| Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva wins · Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,471 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert wins · Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,420 | Nov 24, 18:00 UTC |
| Alan Magadan wins · Alan Magadan | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,409 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Murphy Cassone wins · Murphy Cassone | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,396 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
| Harry Wendelken wins · Harry Wendelken | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,368 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 76 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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