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ATP Exact Match Score on Kalshi
If Toby Samuel wins the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm Round Of 16 by a set score of 2-1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alex Michelsen win the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match by a set score of 2-0? · Alex Michelsen wins 2-0 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 4,573 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match by a set score of 2-0? · Lorenzo Musetti wins 2-0 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,545 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Quentin Halys win the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match by a set score of 2-1? · Quentin Halys wins 2-1 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,059 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Arthur Rinderknech win the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match by a set score of 2-1? · Arthur Rinderknech wins 2-1 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,002 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Holger Rune win the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match by a set score of 2-0? · Holger Rune wins 2-0 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 985 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Zizou Bergs win the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match by a set score of 2-0? · Zizou Bergs wins 2-0 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 961 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Quentin Halys win the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match by a set score of 2-0? · Quentin Halys wins 2-0 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 659 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Arthur Rinderknech win the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match by a set score of 2-0? · Arthur Rinderknech wins 2-0 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 543 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Sonego win the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match by a set score of 2-0? · Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-0 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 397 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Zizou Bergs win the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match by a set score of 2-1? · Zizou Bergs wins 2-1 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 345 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Sonego win the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match by a set score of 2-1? · Lorenzo Sonego wins 2-1 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 252 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Miomir Kecmanovic win the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match by a set score of 2-1? · Miomir Kecmanovic wins 2-1 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 165 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Adrian Mannarino win the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match by a set score of 2-1? · Adrian Mannarino wins 2-1 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 139 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Alexander Shevchenko win the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match by a set score of 2-1? · Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-1 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 104 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match by a set score of 2-1? · Lorenzo Musetti wins 2-1 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 92 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Adrian Mannarino win the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match by a set score of 2-0? · Adrian Mannarino wins 2-0 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 91 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match by a set score of 2-1? · Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 2-1 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 72 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Holger Rune win the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match by a set score of 2-1? · Holger Rune wins 2-1 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 56 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Alexander Shevchenko win the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match by a set score of 2-0? · Alexander Shevchenko wins 2-0 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 30 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Michelsen win the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match by a set score of 2-1? · Alex Michelsen wins 2-1 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 27 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match by a set score of 2-0? · Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 2-0 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 7 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Miomir Kecmanovic win the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match by a set score of 2-0? · Miomir Kecmanovic wins 2-0 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Toby Samuel win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match by a set score of 2-1? · Toby Samuel wins 2-1 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Toby Samuel win the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match by a set score of 2-0? · Toby Samuel wins 2-0 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match by a set score of 2-1? · Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-1 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match by a set score of 2-0? · Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-0 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match by a set score of 2-1? · Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins 2-1 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match by a set score of 2-0? · Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins 2-0 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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