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ATP Grand Slam on Kalshi
If Alex Michelsen wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the French Open, Wimbledon, or the U.S. Open) after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Ben Shelton · Ben Shelton | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 160 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Frances Tiafoe · Frances Tiafoe | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 83 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alexander Zverev · Alexander Zverev | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 3 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Flavio Cobolli · Flavio Cobolli | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alex Michelsen · Alex Michelsen | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Tommy Paul · Tommy Paul | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Taylor Fritz · Taylor Fritz | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Rafael Jodar · Rafael Jodar | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Novak Djokovic · Novak Djokovic | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Lorenzo Musetti · Lorenzo Musetti | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Karen Khachanov · Karen Khachanov | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Jannik Sinner · Jannik Sinner | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Jakub Mensik · Jakub Mensik | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Jack Draper · Jack Draper | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Holger Rune · Holger Rune | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Felix Auger-Aliassime · Felix Auger-Aliassime | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Daniil Medvedev · Daniil Medvedev | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Casper Ruud · Casper Ruud | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Carlos Alcaraz · Carlos Alcaraz | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Brandon Nakashima · Brandon Nakashima | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alex de Minaur · Alex de Minaur | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Tennis Grand Slam in 2027: Alexander Bublik · Alexander Bublik | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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