Markets › Kalshi › Sports
ATP Game Spread on Kalshi
If the game differential in favor of Toby Samuel across the full match is above 1.5 games in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports, ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holger Rune win at least 1.5 more games than Zizou Bergs? · Holger Rune -1.5 games | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 6,455 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Michelsen win at least 3.5 more games than Juan Manuel Cerundolo? · Alex Michelsen -3.5 games | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 6,361 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Adrian Mannarino win at least 1.5 more games than Alexander Shevchenko? · Adrian Mannarino -1.5 games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,037 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win at least 3.5 more games than Toby Samuel? · Lorenzo Musetti -3.5 games | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 346 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Arthur Rinderknech win at least 2.5 more games than Miomir Kecmanovic? · Arthur Rinderknech -2.5 games | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 335 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Quentin Halys win at least 1.5 more games than Lorenzo Sonego? · Quentin Halys -1.5 games | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 317 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win at least 1.5 more games than Thiago Agustin Tirante? · Tomas Martin Etcheverry -1.5 games | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 275 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win at least 1.5 more games than Tomas Martin Etcheverry? · Thiago Agustin Tirante -1.5 games | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 107 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Sonego win at least 1.5 more games than Quentin Halys? · Lorenzo Sonego -1.5 games | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 76 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win at least 1.5 more games than Alex Michelsen? · Juan Manuel Cerundolo -1.5 games | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 60 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Miomir Kecmanovic win at least 1.5 more games than Arthur Rinderknech? · Miomir Kecmanovic -1.5 games | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 53 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Holger Rune win at least 4.5 more games than Zizou Bergs? · Holger Rune -4.5 games | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 49 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Arthur Rinderknech win at least 5.5 more games than Miomir Kecmanovic? · Arthur Rinderknech -5.5 games | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 8 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Zizou Bergs win at least 1.5 more games than Holger Rune? · Zizou Bergs -1.5 games | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Toby Samuel win at least 1.5 more games than Lorenzo Musetti? · Toby Samuel -1.5 games | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win at least 6.5 more games than Toby Samuel? · Lorenzo Musetti -6.5 games | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win at least 4.5 more games than Thiago Agustin Tirante? · Tomas Martin Etcheverry -4.5 games | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Will Alexander Shevchenko win at least 1.5 more games than Adrian Mannarino? · Alexander Shevchenko -1.5 games | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Adrian Mannarino win at least 4.5 more games than Alexander Shevchenko? · Adrian Mannarino -4.5 games | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Michelsen win at least 6.5 more games than Juan Manuel Cerundolo? · Alex Michelsen -6.5 games | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Quentin Halys win at least 4.5 more games than Lorenzo Sonego? · Quentin Halys -4.5 games | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.