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ATP Total Games on Kalshi
If the number of completed games in the full match is above 27.5 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 22.5 games · Over 22.5 games | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 25,806 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 23.5 games · Over 23.5 games | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 7,859 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Over 22.5 games · Over 22.5 games | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 5,831 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Over 23.5 games · Over 23.5 games | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,973 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 24.5 games · Over 24.5 games | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,958 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Over 24.5 games · Over 24.5 games | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 597 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Over 22.5 games · Over 22.5 games | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 194 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Over 17.5 games · Over 17.5 games | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 160 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 19.5 games · Over 19.5 games | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 119 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Over 19.5 games · Over 19.5 games | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 117 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Over 18.5 games · Over 18.5 games | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 111 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Over 29.5 games · Over 29.5 games | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 105 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Over 27.5 games · Over 27.5 games | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 102 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 28.5 games · Over 28.5 games | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 12 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Over 27.5 games · Over 27.5 games | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 11 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Over 18.5 games · Over 18.5 games | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 27.5 games · Over 27.5 games | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Over 17.5 games · Over 17.5 games | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Over 29.5 games · Over 29.5 games | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Over 28.5 games · Over 28.5 games | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Over 17.5 games · Over 17.5 games | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.