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Top 5 Ranked Player ATP on Kalshi
If Taylor Fritz is a Top 5 Ranked Men's Singles Player on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexander Bublik be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Alexander Bublik | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 6,630 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Shelton be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Ben Shelton | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,394 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Alex de Minaur be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Alex de Minaur | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,608 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Lorenzo Musetti | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 358 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Arthur Fils be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Arthur Fils | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 289 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Fritz be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Taylor Fritz | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 132 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Novak Djokovic be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Novak Djokovic | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 77 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Rafael Jodar be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Rafael Jodar | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 61 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Alexander Zverev be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Alexander Zverev | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Jannik Sinner be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Jannik Sinner | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Jakub Mensik be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Jakub Mensik | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Flavio Cobolli be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Flavio Cobolli | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Felix Auger-Aliassime be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Felix Auger-Aliassime | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Daniil Medvedev be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Daniil Medvedev | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Casper Ruud be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Casper Ruud | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz be an ATP Top 5 ranked men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026? · Carlos Alcaraz | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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