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American Express Annual KPI on Kalshi
If American Express Company reports Above 80000 headcount in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
73% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will American Express Company report Above 76 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 76 thousand | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 6,496 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 162 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 162 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,415 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 157 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 157 million | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 2,772 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 75 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 75 thousand | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,450 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 160 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 160 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,597 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 159 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 159 million | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,548 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 74 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 74 thousand | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,352 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 158 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 158 million | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,241 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 80 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 80 thousand | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 624 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 78 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 78 thousand | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 211 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 77 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 77 thousand | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 208 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 163 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 163 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 109 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 73 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 73 thousand | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 45 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 156 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 156 million | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 22 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 161 million cards-in-force (total) in fiscal 2026? · Above 161 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8 | Apr 23, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 79 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 79 thousand | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 5 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 72 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 72 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will American Express Company report Above 71 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 71 thousand | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 14, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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