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Boeing KPI on Kalshi
If Boeing reports above 200 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
48% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 76¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.84 | 77.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Boeing report above 150 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 150 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 60 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 160 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 160 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 4 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 100 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 100 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 140 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 140 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 200 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 200 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 190 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 190 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 180 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 180 | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 170 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 170 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 130 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 130 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 120 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 120 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boeing report above 110 commercial airplane deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 110 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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