What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 72¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 74% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 72%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Bald Mountain Opening on Kalshi

If the first calendar day in the 2026-27 winter season on which Bald Mountain (Sun Valley) conducts Seasonal Opening Operations occurs before Nov 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: USA Today, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Bald Mountain at Sun Valley Resort, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

72%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

55% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
72¢ (now)	1.4¢	$0.98	73.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Bald Mountain open before Nov 22, 2026? · Before Nov 22, 2026	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	9,681	Nov 28, 15:00 UTC
Will Bald Mountain open before Nov 29, 2026? · Before Nov 29, 2026	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	1,434	Dec 05, 15:00 UTC
Will Bald Mountain open before Dec 20, 2026? · Before Dec 20, 2026	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	345	Dec 26, 15:00 UTC
Will Bald Mountain open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	55%	334	Dec 19, 15:00 UTC
Will Bald Mountain open before Dec 6, 2026? · Before Dec 6, 2026	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	212	Dec 12, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.