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Light beer point of sale spend array on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Light beer point of sale spend array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 93, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 87? · Above 87 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 88? · Above 88 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 93? · Above 93 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 92? · Above 92 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 91? · Above 91 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 90? · Above 90 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Light beer point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 89? · Above 89 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 03, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.