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Best LLM on Kalshi
If Z AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Epoch AI, Artificial Analysis, LiveBench.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Essential AI | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,368 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Amazon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,261 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Google | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 852 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · xAI | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 629 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Meta | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 461 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Anthropic | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 352 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · OpenAI | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 66 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Z AI | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Xiaomi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Upstage | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Thinking Machines | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Tencent | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · StepFun | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Safe Superintelligence | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Reflection AI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Prime Intellect | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · NVIDIA | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Mistral | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Microsoft | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Moonshot | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · MiniMax | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · LongCat | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · LG AI Research | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Inception | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · InclusionAI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Institute of Foundation Models | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Huawei | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · DeepSeek | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Cohere | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · China Mobile | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · ByteDance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Baidu | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Arcee AI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Best LLM at the end of the decade? · Alibaba | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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