What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 14¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.01.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 15% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 14%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Biggest earthquake on Kalshi

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 10, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the United States Geological Survey.

Market says (typical open contract)

14%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

28% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
14¢ (now)	0.8¢	$3.01	14.8%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 5.6	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	88%	651	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.4	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	570	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 7.0	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	478	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 5.8	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	343	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.6	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	280	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.0	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	241	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.8	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	148	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC
What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 10, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.2	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	67	Nov 10, 23:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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