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Bluest state to elect a Republican senator on Kalshi
If Virginia is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Delaware Department of Elections, Illinois State Board of Elections, Georgia Secretary of State, Michigan Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections, Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division, Federal Election Commission, New Mexico Secretary of State, Elections Division, New Jersey Division of Elections, North Carolina State Board of Elections, Rhode Island Board of Elections, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Minnesota Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, Virginia Department of Elections, Colorado Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delaware be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Delaware | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,060 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Alaska | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25,325 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Colorado be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Colorado | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19,009 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Maine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,805 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Florida | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 14,804 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Oregon be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Oregon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,235 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will New Mexico be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · New Mexico | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,045 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Texas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,920 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Virginia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,723 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will New Jersey be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · New Jersey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,453 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,435 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Massachusetts be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Massachusetts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,311 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Illinois | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,253 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,670 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Georgia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,587 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · North Carolina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,568 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Rhode Island be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Rhode Island | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,654 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,793 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · Ohio | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,186 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election? · New Hampshire | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,998 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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