Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Will there be a blue trickle? on Kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 48 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Senate, United States House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 98¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.07 | 98.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? · Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 249,795 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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